The Golan Jewelry Price Index, rose 9.2% in August, as demand increased and the costs of precious metals and diamonds began rising again. Our outlook is for jewelry prices to continue rising through the fourth quarter.
Heading Back Toward Trend
The important takeaway from the recent rise in prices is the return toward their long-term trend. The Golan Jewelry Price Index has risen since January 2025, but that trend was disrupted by the rapid increase in precious metal prices, especially silver and platinum, partly offset by the decline in natural diamond prices.
That was followed by a sharp decline in the index in March of this year, amid the war in the Gulf.
The moderate recovery in precious metal prices over the past few months is slowly bringing jewelry prices back toward their long-term trend.
While most jewelry commodities rose by double digits year over year, diamonds declined in August. The cost of Rough diamonds fell 10%, polished natural diamonds dropped 16% year over year, and the cost of polished lab-grown diamonds fell 24%.
Diamond Index Slips
Our Diamond Index, which is based on actual wholesale transaction prices, shows an extended price decline that has now stretched for nearly four years.
Diamond prices have been pressured by several factors, including the growing preference for lab-grown diamonds in engagement rings, once a key product for US specialty jewelers. Today, a majority of engagement rings are set with lab-grown diamonds, with those rings selling for roughly 70% less than comparable natural-diamond engagement rings.
The shift is particularly significant because it is changing the economics of the bridal market, rather than simply adding another product option.
Consumer Sentiment Positive, But Spending Is Polarized
A principal component of the jewelry purchasing trend is the willingness of many consumers to spend more per item while also buying more jewelry. The “more” is concentrated in jewelry priced at $2,500 and above.
That is to say that growth is concentrated toward the higher end of the market, particularly in luxury jewelry, while the lower end is under pressure.
The retailers benefiting most from this trend are specialty jewelry retailers, those that primarily sell jewelry and watches.
At specialty jewelers, sales of items priced below $2,500 are declining rapidly.
But we need to be specific here. Based on Bureau of Economic Analysis consumer spending data, total US jewelry demand is heading toward $93 billion in 2026, a 6% increase in value. By units, there is a 4% decline.
Much of the growth is driven by sales at specialty jewelers. Lower price points, however, are more heavily represented at multi-category retailers, such as department stores and online stores, which are perceived by consumers as more budget-friendly.
This creates a clear divide in consumer demand. Many consumers are pulling back from jewelry purchases, particularly those who would otherwise have spent less than the $2,500 threshold. According to Tenoris, unit sales of those items have fallen 15% at specialty jewelers so far this year.
The reason for the large difference between Tenoris unit sales figures and the broader US figures is that more budget-conscious consumers are buying lower-priced jewelry through multi-category retailers.
What Does All This Mean?
This raises an important question: Where is the US jewelry market heading?
As in many global markets, jewelry is outperforming much of the broader luxury category, emphasizing its relative strength within luxury. According to McKinsey’s State of the Fashion 2026, jewelry is expected to remain one of the stronger categories in 2026 after having “defied the broader luxury slowdown.” Luxury, not budget-friendly mass market.
Additional drivers pushing up the luxury jewelry segment include rising demand for men’s jewelry and self-gifting.
2026 Forecast: 8%-10% Through Q4
Barring any external economic surprises, we expect demand and average prices to move back toward their long-term trend and rise 8–10% through the fourth quarter and holiday season, closing another year of growth for the US jewelry sector.
There is one caveat to keep in mind. In the US, jewelry currently accounts for 0.49% of consumer share of wallet, slightly below the historical 0.50% level. That means that while consumers are spending more on jewelry, they are increasing their expenditures on services and other goods by a greater degree.
This loss of share indicates that jewelry, especially diamond jewelry, has room to grow further.
About the Golan Jewelry Price Index
The Golan Jewelry Price Index tracks the cost of key inputs and finished products used in the jewelry industry. It includes spot prices for gold, silver, and platinum; transaction prices for polished and rough diamonds; and retailer costs of loose lab-grown diamonds.
The Bottom Line
The jewelry market is entering Q4 with two trends running in parallel. Prices are moving higher as precious metal costs recover, while consumer demand remains concentrated at higher price points. The result is a market that is growing in value but becoming increasingly divided by price. For retailers and suppliers, understanding that divide will be critical heading into the holiday season.
We offer a wide range of solutions aimed at improving efficiencies, revenue, and understanding of the diamond and jewelry landscape. We do that through a deep understanding of the market and high-quality proprietary data. Jewelry price analysis is just one of part of it. Contact us to learn more.